Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 0.241957 0.293212 0.355477 0.437605 0.544471 0.680768 8.709551e-01
2025-05-04 0.162230 0.214045 0.284221 0.388759 0.545105 0.778162 1.168097e+00
2025-05-11 0.113864 0.160444 0.229189 0.342377 0.533239 0.861056 1.515177e+00
2025-05-18 0.080982 0.120212 0.182256 0.293301 0.501068 0.906967 1.867485e+00
2025-05-25 0.059381 0.092049 0.146823 0.252221 0.468746 0.946122 2.285448e+00
2025-06-01 0.047211 0.076400 0.128305 0.235952 0.480342 1.097133 3.218068e+00
2025-06-08 0.038499 0.064774 0.114083 0.223820 0.498426 1.294044 4.717369e+00
2025-06-15 0.032317 0.056400 0.103977 0.217410 0.530617 1.581251 7.439119e+00
2025-06-22 0.027504 0.049624 0.095436 0.211988 0.566187 1.946928 1.226313e+01
2025-06-29 0.023004 0.042589 0.084678 0.197469 0.568428 2.215201 1.848957e+01
2025-07-06 0.017911 0.033484 0.067425 0.160216 0.475002 1.947865 1.838028e+01
2025-07-13 0.015713 0.030101 0.062588 0.156052 0.499755 2.352321 3.178514e+01
2025-07-20 0.014045 0.027683 0.059796 0.158051 0.557537 3.151631 7.385598e+01
2025-07-27 0.012775 0.025924 0.058246 0.163763 0.642468 4.507367 2.342150e+02
2025-08-03 0.011485 0.023882 0.055498 0.164688 0.711461 6.163069 8.781469e+02
2025-08-10 0.010140 0.021478 0.051209 0.158472 0.739640 7.676426 3.513509e+03
2025-08-17 0.008933 0.019217 0.046823 0.150193 0.750268 9.213461 1.991513e+04
2025-08-24 0.008160 0.017912 0.044911 0.151178 0.829530 13.065331 3.720635e+06
2025-08-31 0.007491 0.016761 0.043197 0.152420 0.919504 19.029746 NaN
2025-09-07 0.006946 0.015845 0.042002 0.155646 1.039893 29.716686 NaN
2025-09-14 0.006451 0.014982 0.040775 0.158327 1.170051 47.605340 NaN
2025-09-21 0.005874 0.013806 0.038244 0.153297 1.215810 64.910871 NaN
2025-09-28 0.005038 0.011804 0.032548 0.129385 1.007207 49.946070 NaN